Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 12 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 13 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... The threat for more organized convection developing on Day 3 continues to grow, stemming from a subtle shortwave/upper-level low forming and stalling out over the Southern High Plains. The bulk of the global guidance generally indicates this scenario, and the ECMWF suite (including the ECENS and AIFS) are of particular concern with the most robust signal of the models (with the AIFS continuing to have a southward shift of best QPF signal, near the more sensitive areas of central/North TX). A large Slight Risk was largely unchanged from the previous cycle, encompassing the area where organized convective activity is expected to occur, though many of the details will still need to be ironed out as we enter the hi- res CAM period. In the meantime, the combination of already saturated soils and terrain sensitivities across the broader region with highly anomalous tropospheric moisture (PWs of 2.0"+ expected, near 90th percentile) is justification for a broad Slight Risk that can be more fine tuned in subsequent cycles. ...Upper Midwest, Great Lakes into Ohio Valley... Convection should become less abundant into Day 3 in association with the consolidated shortwave from Day 2, as it lifts into Canada and forcing becomes less impressive overall (though still located within a favorable right-entrance region of an attendant jet streak). Daytime heating will likely drive the main threat with short-term localized totals of 1-3" possibly resulting in isolated flash flooding. ...Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad Marginal Risk area continues into Day 3, as localized downpours (1-2" hourly amounts) in association with daytime heating present an isolated risk of flash flooding similar to the prior day. Coverage and intensity may increase a bit, based on the consensus guidance, but remains questionable as ridging aloft may continue to tamp down on convection. Churchill/Taylor Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt