Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Oct 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Pre-frontal convection moving through the Ohio Valley/Interior
Northeast as well as along the Gulf Coast will contain rainfall
rates that will briefly exceed 1"/hr. However, the progressive
nature of these cells will limit total rainfall, and FFG
exceedance probabilities are minimal.
Putnam/Weiss
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
The upper trof swinging through the Lower Lakes/OH Valley/Central
Appalachians day 1 will become more negatively tilted, closing off
an upper center day 2 across the northern Mid-Atlantic into
Northern NY State and northern New England. 850-700 mb moisture
flux will will remain anomalous, 2 to 4 standard deviations above
the mean, ahead of this closing off system into the terrain of
northern NY State and western New England. The RRFS and HREF 1"+/hr
probabilities do increase Monday morning over western New England
into northern NY State, peaking at 15-30% in the marginal risk
area. There is still spread in the model qpfs, but consensus for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall potential. Overall, no
significant changes to the previous marginal risk area across
northern NY State into western New England, with it still aligned
with the latest WPC qpf maximum from northern NY State, across much
of VT, western MA, north-central NH into western ME.
Oravec
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Oravec
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt