Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
658 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Apr 15 2024 - 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE OHIO-
WEST VIRGINIA-PENNSYLVANIA BORDER JUNCTION...

A line of convection across PA has been generally progressive and
has shown signs of organization due to the degree of effective bulk
shear present and upstream instability across OH. It's the upstream
instability that's the possible issue as there has been recent
signs of some backbuilding showers. While precipitable water values
are fairly low -- 1-1.25" at best -- where backbuilding and
resultant cell training can manage to occur, 1.5" an hour totals
would be possible which would be problematic in rugged terrain and
urban areas. Have opted to maintain a portion of the Marginal Risk
near the tristate border of WV-PA-OH due to possibility of
backbuilding.  From an excessive rainfall/flash flood threat,
expect the risk to be on the lower end of the marginal risk scale
-- i.e. closer to 5%.  Due to the modest precipitable water values
 present, expect CIN to develop after sunset and cause the
 activity to wane in intensity and coverage, with the expectation
 that it won't last too far into the very early morning hours on
 Monday, perhaps 0700 UTC.

Roth