Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 859 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat May 10 2025 - 12Z Sat May 10 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... Convection along the central Gulf Coast will continue to pose an isolated flash flood risk tonight. One more round of intense convection is expected to move into coastal areas tonight into early Saturday, although some model differences remain with the specifics. The 12z REFS is the furthest west, bringing a max into southern MS, with the 23z HRRR the furthest east, more into the western FL Panhandle. At this point leaning a bit more towards the recent HRRR runs, but in reality anywhere from southern MS to the western FL Panhandle is in play for additional heavy convection and 3"+ more of rain in spots. Not seeing quite enough model consistency to go with a Slight risk, but with earlier rainfall increasing saturation...it does seem probable that at least a few more instances of flash flooding will occur into the overnight hours wherever this stronger convection moves onshore. Chenard Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt