Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026


***Major Winter Storm To Bring Significant Impacts To The South
 Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday
 Night Into Sunday***

...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Mid-South,
Southern & Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

The ingredients for the impending major winter storm begin to take
shape Thursday night. A broad upper trough located off Baja
California will work in tandem with a ridge axis near Mexico to
direct a rich plume of tropical East Pacific moisture into the
Southern Rockies and Plains. At the same time, an arctic front
ushers in the coldest temperatures this season across the Great
Plains with a highly anomalous dome of arctic high pressure
building in over the North Central U.S.. As high pressure rushes
south, easterly upslope flow induced between the high pressure to
the north and lower pressure near California will cause upslope
flow into the higher terrain of the CO and NM Rockies with lighter
snowfall in the central High Plains. WPC probabilities show high
chances (>70%) for snowfall above 9,000ft in the CO/NM Rockies
through Saturday afternoon.

Precipitation will blossom over much of KS, OK, and TX Friday, starting
as rain across much of TX initially, but look for precipitation to
transition to snow over KS, northern OK, and the TX Panhandle by
Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, strengthening low-
level WAA will over-run the incoming sub-freezing layer in the
lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere from West Texas to as far east as
the Mid-South. Sleet will become more prevalent over the Red River
Valley, north-central AR, and into western TN, while freezing rain
is the primary preip type from the TX Hill Country through the
ArkLaTex and as far east as the TN Valley. Heavy sleet is possible
in some of these areas with multiple inches of sleet possible
through Saturday. The slow progression of the upper trough over
Baja California and the bitterly cold arctic air-mass anchored
over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is a recipe ripe for
prolonged freezing rain from central TX to as far east as the
southern Appalachians through 00Z Sunday. WPC probabilities show
concerningly high probabilities (50-70%) for ice accumulations
through 00Z Sunday over one-quarter inch. The areas of greatest
concern are over the ArkLaTx, southern AR, northern LA, northern
MS/AL, and southern TN where low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
exist for over one-half inch of ice. While this discussion is
geared to the short term (ending 00Z Sunday) the ice in all these
areas are forecast to continue through Saturday night and even into
Sunday. There is great concern for extensive tree damage and power
outages from central TX on east through the Mid-South and into the
Southern Appalachians into Sunday.

Farther north, the air-mass through the depth of the atmospheric
column remains cold enough to support all snow from the Central
Plains on east through the Ozarks and across northern TN and much
of KY beginning Friday evening in the Plains, then into the TN/OH
Valleys Saturday morning. By midday and into Saturday afternoon,
periods of snow will reach the southern and central Appalachians
and potentially the VA/NC Piedmont. Snowfall rates topping 1"/hr
are likely in areas just north of the strongest 850-700mb FGEN
zone and vertical velocities are highest in a highly saturated
dendritic growth zone in the Central Plains and OH Valley. The
very cold temperatures over KS on east through MS and into the OH
Valley will cause SLRs to range anywhere from between 12-18:1 with
the higher SLRs over KS. WPC probabilities through 00Z Sunday
depict high chances (>70%) for >4" of snow over central and
southern KS, much of northern OK, the TX Panhandle, and into the
Ozarks of northern AR and southern MO. The best chances for >8" of
snowfall reside over the Ozarks where moderate chance probabilities
(40-60%) are present.

Similar to the ice, the snow will by no means be over given the
extensive plume of anomalous moisture emanating out of the East
Pacific. By Saturday night, southerly flow out of the Gulf will
continue to direct copious amounts of moisture into the eastern
U.S., resulting in a highly disruptive and dangerous winter storm
from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic. WPC continues to issue Key
Messages for this winter storm and a link to them can be found
below.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

A Hudson Bay vortex pivoting south through Ontario will sustain the
seemingly endless cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and their
usual snow belts. 500mb heights associated with this powerful upper
low are quite anomalous (below the 1st climatological percentile
in southern Ontario Thursday into Friday night). WPC probabilities
highlight high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4" over the
northern tier of the U.P., western MI, along the Chautauqua Ridge
on north into western NY, and down wind of Lake Ontario over the
Tug Hill. The Tug Hill most notably will continue to receive very
heavy snow over the next few days highlighted by WPC 72-hour
probabilities sporting high chances (>70%) in the Tug Hill. A
growing concern is for snow squalls over the Northeast. WPC
initiated Key Messages for what appear to be multiple rounds of
snow squalls from western NY on east through New England, with
some squalls possible as far south as northern PA. The final round
of squalls are expected on Friday as an arctic front traverses the
region, causing steep lapse rates and focused vertical ascent. For
more details on the snow squall threat in the Northeast through
Friday, please refer to our Key Messages.


Mullinax



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
 Key Messages below...

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