ZCZC NFDQPFSRD ALL
TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM

SPECIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD
752 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999

VALID UNTIL JUL 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AFOS GRAPHIC 94E

RAINFALL COULD EXCEED FFG VALUES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WSW ONL 40 N ONL 10 ESE MHE 10 ENE FSD 10 SE OTG SLB 10 E CBF
15 NW FNB 30 SSE BIE 15 NNE CNK 20 ENE HLC GLD 25 ENE GLD
20 W BBW 35 N BBW 35 WSW ONL.

HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS ON
THE WRN PART OF THE NEB/KS BORDER.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AND
SPREAD SLOWLY EWD... FED BY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE INFLOW 
MEANWHILE... FARTHER TO THE NORTH... A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. THE 18Z ETA SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONCENTRATES AN AREA OF RAINFALL TO ITS EAST OVERNIGHT. 
RUC INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING NEWD FROM CO HAS HELPED TO
DEVELOP THE KS/NEB ACTIVITY... DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH THICKNESSES. BUT
SLIGHT COOLING TONIGHT MAY GIVE SOME SUPPORT TO NRN NEB PORTION OF
CONVECTION.  ALSO LOOKS LIKE A CELL MERGER COULD OCCUR IN THAT AREA...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS SD.  ISOLATED RAINFALLS OF TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN A FEW HOURS MAY BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM AS THEY SPREAD EWD
INTO LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN ERN PORTION OF THE THREAT
AREA.

RAINFALL COULD APPROACH FFG VALUES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW WCH 25 NE ELO 20 WNW BFW 25 N JMR 25 SW LXL 15 WSW GHW
30 ENE ABR 30 ENE JMS 15 NW TVF 15 N BDE 30 WSW WCH.

LITTLE CHANGE HERE... EXCEPT THAT ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS MOVING 
FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.  ISOLATED RAINFALLS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES IN A FEW HOURS COULD OCCUR.

ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE 
FROM 20 NNW 2C2 15 N SRR 45 WNW TCC 30 W CAO 20 ESE CAO
15 ENE AMA 35 ENE LBB 65 W DYS 60 E MAF 25 E FST 35 SE MRF
15 E ELP 20 NNW 2C2.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TRAPPED UNDER UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED ONE TO TWO INCH
AMOUNTS IN A FEW HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THREAT AREA.

ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE 
FROM 20 NNW SBS 10 ESE EGE 20 WNW GUC 15 NE DRO 30 W 4SL
45 NNW TCS 20 W LRU 75 S DUG 95 WSW 13A 15 E IPL 50 NNW IYK MMH
30 NNE MMH 65 ENE TPH 40 W MLF 35 SSE U24 55 SSE EVW 15 SSE RKS
RWL 20 NNW SBS.

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PERSIST DESPITE
RECENT PENETRATION OF THE WESTERLIES SWD INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW HOURS.
LINDNER/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT /

NNNN