Forecast Tools (Prototype)
 
 
1/3/6/24-hr Changes
 
Change graphics

Change in weather parameters over the last 1/3/6/24 hours. The data used here is either from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP). The RTMA is shown at its native resolution of 2.5km and is used for surface variables. The RAP is shown at 32km (native resolution 13km) and is primarily used for non-surface (i.e., upper level) variables. For more information please see the RTMA or the RAP website.


Ensemble Verification - Outside the Forecast Envelope
 
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This shows the area where the verifying 500hPa height or Sea Level Pressure analysis fell outside the forecast ensemble "envelope" of solutions from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensembles (noted as ECENS) from 12-240 hours lead time.

Ensemble Verification - Spaghetti
 
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Ensemble "spaghetti" refers to a common method of displaying multiple ensemble members' forecasts for a single variable (often, geopotential height) overlaid together. The many lines indicate relative agreement or disagreement in the forecast and can resemble spaghetti. This product shows the forecast from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles (in addition to the Canadian Center ensembles) compared to the verifying anaylsis for a given forecast hour. This is only from the 00Z ensemble runs.

GEFS Probabilities
 
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This forecast product shows probabilistic information for the lower 48 states from the GEFS. This updates four times daily. Probabilities of exceeding or remaining less than such variables as precipitation, temperature, or sea-level pressure at various thresholds are displayed.


About these products - still links to AK