Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center
2003 Accomplishment Report
1. Introduction
The
year 2003 marked the beginning of a new era for National Weather Service (NWS)
with the coming of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). For the first time, the NDFD made
high-resolution gridded forecasts widely available to NWS customers. Many of the changes in the HPC were geared
toward supporting the NDFD. While the
actual forecasts that populate the NDFD originate at the local Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs), the HPC increased its interaction with local WFOs in order to
facilitate the collaborative process leading to a consistent set of forecasts
across the country. HPC also made many
changes to its operations to meet the needs of the WFOs better. HPC participated in the online chat room
used for coordination and collaboration, added an early medium-range guidance
package, and developed new products.
The
Winter Weather Experiment entered a new phase in the fall of 2003 with its
expansion to include WFOs from all parts of the conterminous U.S. The HPC served as the facilitator for
collaboration sessions whenever significant winter weather events were
expected.
It
was an especially active year for the HPC with several significant winter
storms and tropical systems impacting the U.S.
2. Major Accomplishments
Daily Weather Map
Publication Expands To Electronic Format
The
NWS Daily Weather Map series, whose publication can be traced back over 100
years, went electronic in 2003. Beginning
with the first issue published in 2003, the Daily Weather Map has been
available for viewing or downloading from the Internet. The Daily Weather Map is also available by
subscription, either on compact disk quarterly or via a weekly paper
edition. Complete information on the
Daily Weather Map, including subscription service is available on the HPC web
pages.
HPC Expands NDFD Support
HPC
increased its support to the NDFD by providing additional products and services
to the WFOs.
Chat Sessions
HPC
is participating in Web-based chat sessions with the WFOs using interactive
software that allows text-based collaboration among WFOs and National
Centers. The HPC role is to assist WFOs
in reaching a consensus at the synoptic scale.
Delta Grids
During
the spring 2003, HPC began preparing and disseminating “delta grids” showing
the difference
Operational Readiness
Demonstration
HPC
participated in the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) Operational
Readiness Demonstration (ORD) which ran
from June 16 through July 15. The
purpose of the ORD was to test the methodologies being developed to implement
the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD).
This was the first test of the HPC “delta grids” for the medium-range
period. HPC also provided gridded
quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) to assist the WFOs in preparing
their QPF for the NDFD.
New Products in Support of
Western Region WFOs
In
response to Western Region requests, HPC developed new products to help western
offices with the location of major upper-level weather patterns impacting the
Rockies. New products included
experimental 500-mb forecasts.
Winter Weather Experiment
The
Winter Weather Experiment (WWE) marked the start of its third year in the fall
of 2003 with an expansion to include offices in all four of the conterminous
U.S. NWS regions. C
See coverage maps for 2002-2003 or 2003-2004.
The
final report for the experiment for 2002 - 2003 stated “Overall the WWE II met
its goals. The subjective perception by
the majority of participating WFOs was the WWE met its goals by fostering
collaboration which led to a coherent set of watches/warnings issued across
adjacent WFO county warning areas (CWA).
HPC provided value-added guidance in support of the WWE and led a
concise audio collaboration session.”
Because
of its success during the winter 2002 - 2003, the experiment was greatly
expanded for the winter of 2003 - 2004.
With this expansion came new challenges, including the increased number
of days when the HPC was simultaneously coordinating with two or three separate
groups of offices experiencing different winter storms. For the first time the experiment included
offices in the mountainous regions of the west, where local terrain plays a
very significant role in the weather.
HPC Began Development of a
Confidence Factor for QPF
The
quality of forecaster-prepared QPFs, especially beyond 12 hours, varies
considerably from forecast to forecast.
Using funding provided by the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) program, HPC began development of procedures based on the use of
ensemble predictions to quantify the measure of uncertainty in the manually
produced HPC forecasts. Using this
confidence factor, NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs) will be better able to
determine which QPFs would add to the quality of the river forecasts and
therefore extend the lead time and accuracy of flow forecasts. Jung-Sun Im is developing the techniques,
which will be applied to operational HPC deterministic forecasts to generate
this confidence factor.
HPC Provided Support to NWS
Forecast Offices and NWS Customers for Several Major Winter Storms
February 14-18 Winter Storm
Impacts Eastern Half of the United States
A
complex major winter storm system gripped much of the eastern half of the
nation from February 14-18. From the
plains eastward, hazardous weather included wide areas of snow, sleet, freezing
rain, high winds, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, hail and one tornado. There was significant flooding in Kentucky
and the Tennessee Valley, while blizzard conditions were experienced along the
New England coast. The HPC issued numerous
storm-related products throughout the period and gave numerous interviews.
Similar
in challenge to a hurricane bearing down on the Tropical Prediction Center
(TPC), HPC staff were called upon to issue accurate products to help keep the
public out of harm’s way, while at the same time maintaining continuous
operations despite many roads being impassable and a state of emergency being
declared by the Maryland governor. One
to two feet of snow fell from West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey,
southern New York, into southern New England.
In all over 16 inches of snow fell in Washington and 28 inches in
Baltimore, making this their fifth and number one heaviest winter storms,
respectively.
February 20-23 Winter Storm
Affecting the Eastern U.S.
The
HPC played a key role in National Weather Service support to various user
groups during the winter storm affecting the eastern U.S. on February
20-23. In addition to high winds, heavy
snow, and several tornadoes, the storm was significant because it brought heavy
rain to areas hit hard by rain and snow from the record-setting winter storm of
the preceding Presidents’ Day weekend.
Flooding occurred from east Texas to Kentucky and southern Indiana east
to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
In addition to its usual complement of QPFs for the NWS River Forecast
Centers and others, upon special request the HPC briefed the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA) of the rainfall potential.
HPC Assisted in Forecasting
the Impacts of Several Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Bill
On
June 30, Tropical Storm Bill made landfall in the Louisiana delta region. In line with existing procedures, TPC and
HPC provided information on the track and impacts (winds, storm surge, inland
flooding, and tornadoes) to FEMA senior leadership and state-level emergency
managers from the affected states in the southeast U.S. during three audio and
video teleconferences that day.
Additional support continued as Bill moved toward the Mid-Atlantic
States.
Hurricane Claudette
Hurricane
Claudette made landfall along the Texas coast on July 15. More than a week earlier when the system was
in the Caribbean, HPC began assisting the TPC by providing guidance forecasts
of the track of the storm for seven days into the future. Additionally, as Claudette approached the
U.S. mainland, working closely with TPC, HPC provided QPFs for the storm. HPC also supported FEMA Headquarters, its
field offices, and its Hurricane Liaison Team, by delivering twice daily, live
video briefings on the expected precipitation from Claudette for several days
before and after landfall. HPC assumed
forecast responsibility for the storm from TPC with the Public Advisory issued
at 5:00 a.m. July 16. HPC issued its
last Public Advisory 24 hours later after Claudette weakened considerably and
was no longer a significant rainfall threat.
Tropical Storm Erika
Tropical
Storm Erika made landfall 45 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, on August
16. For several days before the
landfall, HPC assisted the TPC by providing guidance track forecasts seven days
into the future. Additionally, as Erika
approached the U.S. mainland, working closely with TPC, HPC provided QPFs for
the storm. Also, on August 15 HPC
Director Jim Hoke supported FEMA Headquarters, its field offices, its Hurricane
Liaison Team, and the Texas Emergency Management Director by delivering three
briefings on the expected precipitation from Erika, including one briefing at
midnight just before landfall.
Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane
Isabel made landfall along the North Carolina coast around noon on September
18, then headed for the Washington, D.C., area. For more than a week before that time as the system traveled
across the Atlantic, the HPC assisted the TPC by providing guidance track forecasts. Additionally, as Isabel approached the U.S.
mainland, HPC also supported the FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team by delivering
twice daily, live video briefings on the expected QPF from Isabel for the three
days before and one day after landfall.
The
HPC coordinated extensively with NWS field offices, especially on the predicted
precipitation amounts. A number of
these activities were accomplished while the federal government in the
Washington area was shut down because of the storm.
Media Activities
HPC Was Very Visible in the
Media During Several Major Winter Storms
Several
winter storms attracted the attention of the national media. Storms of February 14-18 and February 20-23
resulted in many interviews both from the electronic and print media. HPC conducted many interviews including with
ABC News, CBS Radio, CNN Radio (in English and Spanish), WADO Radio in New York
(in Spanish), Bloomberg News, USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and
National Public Radio. HPC Director Jim
Hoke appeared on camera on the “CBS Evening News with Dan Rather”, “CBS Early
Show with Harry Smith” and CNN’s “Lou Dobbs Tonight”. HPC staff also gave interviews to AP, CNN, Reuters, the New York
Times, the Los Angeles Times, and the Chicago Tribune.
HPC Provides Media Support
For Spring Storms
A
complex series of spring storms brought a wide range of significant weather
conditions to the eastern half of the country during the first week of
April. Tornadoes, hail, heavy rain,
freezing rain, sleet, and major snowfall were reported. On April 7, HPC Director Jim Hoke appeared
on the CBS Evening News and the following morning on the CBS Early Show to
describe the ongoing event. Interviews
were also provided by HPC staff to ABC News, the Japanese Broadcast Corporation
(NHK), the Associated Press, and CNN Radio (Spanish Broadcast).
Hurricane Isabel
HPC
provided numerous media interviews as Hurricane Isabel affected the eastern
U.S. HPC hosted Fox Channel 5
(Washington, D.C.) for 3-4 hours the two mornings before landfall by providing
live interviews and background shots.
HPC also provided graphics on several occasions for special briefings
presented to White House staff and the President.
HPC Was Active in its
Community Outreach Program
HPC
meteorologists spoke to a number of groups to encourage weather awareness. For
example, an HPC meteorologist participated in the Fauquier County Boy Scouts
merit badge day and the annual Fauquier Hospital's Kids Safe 2003 program, as
well as visiting local elementary schools.
HPC Sponsors Forecaster
Exchange Program
HPC
sponsored a forecaster exchange program with the River Forecast Centers to
foster communication between HPC and the RFCs as well as allow forecasters to
become more familiar with the products and procedures of their
counterparts. Hydrologists from several
RFCs visited the HPC for two or three days each and several HPC forecasters
visited several RFCs.
Conferences and Seminars
HPC Participated in a
Planning Meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Robert
Kelly, Chief, HPC Forecast Operations Branch, represented the NWS at the WMO in
Geneva, Switzerland, at a meeting held April 1-3. This was an expert preparatory session for a Flood Forecasting
Workshop being planned by the WMO for 2004.
The role of the NWS in this preparatory session was to contribute in
planning the agenda, topics, and directions of the proposed conference.
HPC Participated in Great
Divide Workshop
Robert
Kelly participated in the Great Divide Workshop in Glasgow, MT, during the week
of August 25, making a presentation on the HPC and its roles in the NDFD
era. This briefing included the
forecast programs of HPC, with special emphasis on the Winter Weather
Experiment, QPF, and medium-range forecasting.
The workshop provided a forum to share information and discuss ideas
involving new techniques for weather forecasting for the Intermountain West and
western High Plains.
International Desks
African Desk Expands to
Include Training at the HPC
On
September 4, Mr. Charles K. A. Yorke, a forecaster from Ghana, began six weeks
of training as the first visiting scientist from Africa at the HPC
International Desks. The training in
the HPC provided experience in short-range weather events such as QPF. While in the HPC, visiting scientists assist
in the preparation of daily 3-day forecast charts over Africa and an
accompanying text bulletin. The
visiting scientists will also spend six weeks in the Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) working with scientists studying climatic issues
HPC Provides Support for
Heavy Rain Event in Brasil and Argentina
HPC’s
International Desks provided meteorological advice and support to Argentina and
Brasil from April 21 through May 1 in advance of and during a heavy rainfall
event over southern Brasil and the Mesopotamia Valley in Argentina. The heavy rainfall began on the April 23, as
forecast and continued through May 1.
There were reports of two to four inches per day across the region. The heavy rainfall formed along a slow
moving, nearly stationary front, an unusual event for April. Over 100,000 persons were displaced by the
resulting floods.
HPC Provides Early Alert to
Severe Weather Outbreak in Argentina
Starting
on Oct 23, the HPC International Desks warned users in Argentina of the
potential for severe weather and mesoscale convective system development with a
progressive polar front. This was
further highlighted in the bulletins issued on Oct 24 and 25.
On
the days of the event (October 26-27) wind reports in excess of 70 mph,
rainfall maxima of 3-4 inches, and hail were received. As a result of the prompt warnings issued by
the Argentinian weather service, the public took mitigation actions,
reinforcing the roofs and walls of their homes. This kept damage to a minimum.
The storms continued into Paraguay over the weekend, and the public was
equally alerted to the potential for damage.
Severe thunderstorms occurred along with a tornado that caused damage to
more than 200 houses.
International Desk Provides
Early Alert For Potential Heavy Rains Over Puerto Rico
On
November 10, the visiting scientists of the HPC International Desks and Mike
Davison, HPC International Desks Coordinator, after completing a comprehensive
evaluation of the model guidance, initiated a coordination call with the lead
forecaster at the NWS Weather Forecast Office in San Juan, Puerto Rico, to
discuss the potential for organized rainfall from the positive interaction
between a tropical wave and an upper-level short-wave trough. The system was to evolve gradually into a
tropical disturbance with an organized circulation south of Puerto Rico,
placing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in an area optimum for heavy
rainfall.
The
HPC International Desks recommended to the WFO the use of the Eta model
guidance, as it was doing a better job with the system initialization and
providing fine-scale detail necessary for mesoscale forecasting. They advised the WFO to expect the heaviest
rainfall on November 12, with 24 hours rainfall maxima of 4 inches for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and 8 inches across the island of Puerto Rico. This event was also highlighted on the
Tropical Desk model discussion/bulletin, warning local interests to expect
rainfall maxima to exceed the model guidance.
The forecasted event verified well, with the heavier rainfall amounts
recorded November 11-12.
3. Awards
Isaac Cline Award
The
recipients at the HPC level and then at the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) level for the Isaac Cline Award for Meteorology were HPC’s
Winter Weather Team - Peter Manousos,
Bruce Sullivan, Chris Hedge, Bob Oravec, and Dan Petersen.
4. HPC Staff
HPC Hosts Summer Students
The
HPC hosted several summer interns in 2003:
Christian Douglas, a computer science and
mathematics major at Clark Atlanta University, returned to the HPC for a second
summer. She was a participant in the
NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAS), a cooperative science center
established by NOAA and led by Howard University.
Peter Chery, a computer science major
at Bowie State University, had previous NWS experience, having spent summer
2002 at NWS Headquarters designing web pages.
At HPC in 2003 Peter worked on the development of a web-based interface
for time and attendance and scheduling.
Wayne MacKenzie had completed his junior
year at Millersville University before joining HPC for the summer. Wayne worked on a project to develop a
better understanding of the convective feedback problem with NCEP’s Global
Forecast System (GFS).
Andrew Sovonick, student at Sidwell Friends
School, worked on a project to improve the technique developed by the Office of
Hydrologic Development to convert HPC QPFs to probabilistic QPFs by stratifying
past data based on weather regimes.
The
listing below reflects the HPC staff assigned as of December 31, 2003.
Front Office
James
E. Hoke, Director
Kevin
C. McCarthy, Deputy Director
Crystal
Rickett, Administrative Officer
Jeanette
H. Rolen, Secretary
Development And Training
Branch
Edwin
J. Danaher, Branch Chief
Michel
Davison, International Desks Coordinator
Peter
C. Manousos, Science and Operations Officer
Meteorologist Developers: Chris Bailey, Michael Bodner, Keith F. Brill, Joe W. Carr, Jr.,
Mark Klein.
Mohan
Karyampudi, Contractor for the International Desk
Jung-Sun
Im, Contractor for Probabilistic QPF Development
Forecast Operations Branch
Robert
Kelly, Branch Chief
Senior Branch Forecasters: Michael T. Eckert, Norman “Wes” Junker, Brian Korty, Robert J.
Oravec, Bruce D. Terry.
Forecasters: Jessica L. Clark, James A. Cisco, Stephen J. Flood, Christopher
M. Hedge, David Kosier, Arthur J. Lindner, Paul Mausser, Mike Musher, Larry
Nierenberg, Andrew Orrison, Frank J. Pereira, Dan Petersen, Robert L. Rausch,
Alan J. Robson, Franklin A. Rosenstein, David M. Roth, Michael L. Schichtel,
Bruce E. Sullivan.
Surface Analysts: Kathy Bell, Doug Hilderbrand, Pam Szatanek, Paul A. Ziegenfelder.
Meteorological Technicians: Jacqueline I. Hatchett, Rufus J. Jackson, Jr., William
McReynolds, Jr.
Staffing Changes During 2003
Promotions:
Robert
J. Oravec was promoted to Senior Branch Forecaster
Andrew
Orrison was promoted to GS-13 meteorologist
Several employees left the
HPC:
Louis
E. Wolf retired
Jim
Kells transferred to the Ocean Prediction Center
New HPC employee:
Pam
Szatanek - Surface Analyst
New contractor:
Jung-Sun
Im - IM Systems Group, Inc.
5. Illustrations and Pictures of HPC Staff and events.