About the Model Diagnostics Discussion

The WPC model diagnostic meteorologist prepares the Model Diagnostic Discussion which evaluates the NAM and GFS along with other operational model and ensemble guidance for each significant system affecting the continental U.S. through 84 hours from model initialization. This discussion emphasizes model differences and preferences, with an evaluation of NAM/GFS analyses if there are significant errors and a review of model trends and biases if appropriate.  There are two issuances during each of the day and night shifts corresponding to the arrival of latest model data.

The following table shows the deadline and content for each issuance.

Issuance Time Content
0445Z/1645Z Evaluate NAM and GFS initializations
Compare NAM/GFS and other available model/ensemble guidance
Review model trends and biases as appropriate Discuss model preferences
0645Z/1845Z Evaluate the ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian global models relative to other current guidance
Finalize model preferences

During the cool season (Nov 1 - Apr 15), this meteorologist is also primarily responsible for requesting reconnaissance flights whenever the potential exists for major winter storm development over the East or Gulf Coast states.