Experimental Alaska Medium-Range (days 4-8) Public Forecasts 

The Alaska medium range forecasters review the latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance (e.g., GFS, Global Ensemble Forecast System, or GEFS; Canadian GEM Global; Canadian GEM Ensembles; ECMWF; ECMWF Ensembles; Navy NOGAPS; UKMET; and the North American Ensemble Forecast System, or NAEFS) to compose the most likely forecast for Alaska and surrounding areas valid on days 4-8.  

An Alaska Medium Range Discussion along with surface fronts and pressures graphics for days 4-8 are issued experimentally, so they may not update regularly.  Future products planned for experimental release in Spring 2008 include: 

1) Day 4-8 Alaska Region 500-hPa heights;
2) Day 4-8 Maximum/Minimum Temperature Grids;
3) Day 4-8 12-hr Probability of Precipitation Grids; and
4) Day 4-8 derived Dewpoint Temperature, Cloud Cover, Precipitation Type, and Wind Speed/Direction Grids.  

Each of the grids will be available downscaled to 5-km horizontal resolution.  

The NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is currently developing a method to derive downscaled 10th and 90th percentile values for Maximum/Minimum Temperature and Wind Speed from the NAEFS, which can be adjusted by the Alaska medium range forecaster.  These values are intended to complement the aforementioned grids for days 4-8 by giving an indication of what is meteorologically possible as well as a measure of uncertainty in the forecast, and should become available during 2008.