•During the
Winter Months
–Convective activity over the Gulf of Mexico and gulf coast of Mexico tends to be capped below 500 hPa (20,000 ft)
•Evaluate
upper dynamics for CONVERGENCE or DIVERGENCE
before forecasting thunderstorms.
–If models
forecast post frontal northerlies of 25Kt or greater, and dew point temperature of 20C (68F) or greater over southern Mexico.
•Forecast 12
hrs rainfall accumulation of at least 2-4 inches.