Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0006
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast TX...Far Southeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300543Z - 301043Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the overnight hours. Areas of cell-training will continue to pose
concerns for flash flooding and especially around the more
urbanized locations. This will include the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar shows a southwest/northeast oriented band of
heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of north-central
to northeast TX, including especially the southern and eastern
portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area.

All of the convection is being driven by the interaction of
shortwave energy ejecting northeast across the southern Plains out
ahead of the deep closed low over the Southwest, and with the
pooling of at least modest instability and favorable southerly
moisture transport out ahead of a frontal zone. MUCAPE values
across much of central to northeast TX have risen to as much as
1000 J/kg with the aid of a southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+
kts, and the CIRA-LVT values in the SFC-850 mb layer have been
increasing steadily over the last few hours which is reflective of
the increasing low-level moisture transport.

The flow aloft is quite divergent based off the GOES-E IR/WV data
and this should continue to promote a stronger low-level jet
response going through the overnight hours with enhanced warm air
advection along with favorable moisture and instability transport
for heavy rainfall. There has been some cell-training noted with
the convection over the last couple of hours and portions of the
DFW metroplex have already received 2 to 3+ inches of rain with
rainfall rates with some of the stronger cells reaching 1.5+
inches/hour.

Over the next few hours, the focus for the strongest axis of
convection and heavy rainfall should tend to remain over the
southern and eastern sides of the broader DFW metroplex, with some
localized expansion of convection expected off to the northeast
toward areas of the Arklatex, but mainly concentrated over areas
of northeast TX and far southeast OK.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast
overnight with isolated heavier totals possible where any
cell-training tends to persist. Given the heavy rainfall that has
already occurred over the last few hours, and these additional
totals, flash flooding is likely overnight with the more urban
locations the most susceptible to impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33999460 33289472 32549572 31759694 31499786
            31699820 32269791 33179691 33949544