Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0008
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into mid-MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301532Z - 302130Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding appear likely to continue from
portions of the ArkLaTex into the mid-MS Valley through 21Z. Flash
flood coverage is expected to be scattered with peak rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr and additional totals of 2-4 inches are likely
over the next 6 hours.

DISCUSSION...Widespread areas of moderate to heavy rainfall were
ongoing as of 15Z across northeastern TX into central AR and the
MO Bootheel. While peak rainfall rates over the past few hours
have dropped below 1 in/hr, the steady rainfall over the region
since just before midnight has resulted in 3 to 5 inches of
observed rainfall from northeastern TX into the Ouachita Mountains
and the I-40 corridor. A strong low level jet was present from the
ArkLaTex into western AR with VAD wind plot observed speeds of
50-60 kt. Low level warm air advection to the north of a surface
warm front (which extended W to E across southern AR) was focusing
repeating rounds of moderate to heavy rain from SW to NE along an
elevated convergence axis which was located between 925-850 mb
from northeastern TX into the northwestern half of AR.

While elevated instability to the north of the warm front was, and
is expected to remain, weak (<500 J/kg) through the early
afternoon, steady rain with rates occasionally peaking above 1
in/hr should maintain areas of flash flooding from portions of the
ArkLaTex into the mid-MS Valley over the next 3-6 hours. As a
powerful closed low over the southern/central High Plains
continues to slowly advance eastward during the afternoon, the low
level jet is forecast to maintain its intensity while gradually
translating eastward. Diffluent flow aloft and the slow moving to
nearly stationary elevated axis of convergence will continue to
allow for repeating rounds of heavy rain with occasional rates of
1+ in/hr (but less than 2 in/hr) where pockets of relatively
higher instability coincide with training echoes of heavy rain.
Additional rainfall of 2-4 inches can be expected from portions of
southwestern AR into northeastern AR and the adjacent MS Valley.
Due to fairly low flash flood guidance values, flash flooding is
considered likely.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37388967 37298861 37068807 36648778 36248786
            35598849 34619099 33649280 33179405 33249540
            34009560 35969379 37079202