Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 AM EST Thu Feb 06 2025

Areas affected...much of West Virginia, far northeastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060554Z - 061154Z

Summary...A gradual uptick in excessive runoff potential is
expected especially in central/eastern West Virginia through 12Z.
Local 1-2 inch rainfall totals are expected.

Discussion...Areas of light to moderate rainfall have developed
across much of the discussion area since 03Z, with several
observations of 0.5-1 inch rainfall totals noted.  In addition to
the recent rainfall, an upstream scenario is favoring repeated
rainfall with heavier rates through 12Z, including: 1) upstream
shortwave energy encouraging updrafts across western KY/TN, 2)
increasing low-level flow impinging on a low-level boundary
near/along the KY/TN border, and 3) 40-60 knot low-level flow,
which was increasing instability/MUCAPE from west to east across
Kentucky and vicinity.  The net result of this pattern is a
gradual increase in convective elements along a west-east axis
from western Kentucky through the discussion area.  Nearly
continuous rainfall should occur through 12Z in most areas, with
spots of 0.25-0.5 inch/hr rain rates and 1-2 inch rainfall totals
expected.

These rainfall totals should fall across areas of wet soils from
antecedent rainfall over the past month from eastern KY into the
central Appalachians.  FFG thresholds are generally in the 1
inch/3-hour range and are potentially lowering given ongoing
rainfall.  The regime should support a few areas of
runoff/flooding especially across sensitive terrain in
central/eastern West Virginia.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39377916 39007889 38137978 37548077 37458241
            37928337 38258350 38538317 38878224 39208068