Graphic for MPD #0027

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1012 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241511Z - 242111Z

SUMMARY...Additional shower and thunderstorm activity going
through the early afternoon hours will likely tend to aggravate or
initiate new areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
redeveloping areas of cold-topped convection across areas of
south-central to southeast TX as a continued fetch of warm/moist
air rides north-northeast up from the Lower Rio Grande Valley and
adjacent areas of the western Gulf of Mexico while interacting
with a very slow-moving front settling down across the region.

PWs across the southeast TX coastal plain remain on the order of
1.5 to 1.75 inches despite the passage of a well-defined
convectively driven outflow boundary earlier, and there is still a
fair degree of elevated instability with MUCAPE values of as much
as 1000 to 1500 J/kg. The focusing of this moisture and
instability in proximity of the front and the arrival of
additional shortwave energy/jet forcing from northeast Mexico and
the Rio Grande Valley should result in additional rounds of shower
and thunderstorm activity over the next several hours.

The hires model guidance is in rather poor agreement on the
short-term details of the additional rainfall potential and
overall convective evolution. Based on the latest satellite and
radar trends, and the thermodynamic environment that remains in
place, some of the additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
may produce rainfall rates as high as 1" to 1.5"/hour.

Additional rainfall amounts locally may reach 2 to 3 inches going
through mid-afternoon given the rates and tendency for these cells
to continue to repeat over the same area.

Given the excessive rainfall that fell overnight, and
corresponding runoff problems, these additional rains over the
next several hours will likely prolong the areal runoff concerns
and flash flooding threat.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31069532 30699491 29859496 29089576 28719660
            28549745 28709805 29299820 29709795 30269731
            30999599
Download in GIS format:    Shapefile  | KML



Last Updated: 1012 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024