Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0032
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
920 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern LA...Southern MS...Much of
AL...Southeast TN...Northern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130220Z - 130820Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
the South overnight with concerns for high rainfall rates and
cell-training. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely which
will include the more sensitive urban corridors.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery continues to
show a well-organized convective outbreak evolving across the
South with multiple bands of strong to severe convection,
including supercells, that are focusing corridors of locally
enhanced rainfall. A strong southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50+
kts continues to advance up across eastern LA through southern MS,
with it nosing up into areas of western and central AL. This is
fostering strong moisture transport along with the arrival of a
moderately buoyant airmass characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000
to 2000 J/kg.

Strong low to mid-level veering flow with height continues to
yield enhanced shear profiles favorable for supercells and these
more organized storms out ahead of an approaching cold front and
in vicinity of a warm front lifting northeast across the Southeast
have been tending to locally train over the same location this
evening.

Over the next few hours, areas of southern MS through central AL
in particular will continue to see cell-training and cell-merger
concerns as the convection attempts to evolve a bit more into a
QLCS which will still include embedded supercell concerns. By late
this evening and going well past midnight, areas of northwest GA
will begin to see more of the concentration of heavier convective
rainfall.

The evening CAM guidance, including the HRRR and the experimental
WoFS supports an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
heavier amounts possible where the corridors of more organized
cell-training occurs, and this will be aided by rainfall rates of
generally 1 to 2+ inches/hour.

Some areas of flash flooding are already occurring, and the
additional rains over the next several hours should yield
additional areas of flash flooding. This will include especially
the more sensitive urban areas, which by later in the night may
include the Atlanta metropolitan area.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35448488 35208370 34498325 33368365 31778605
            30328893 29919032 30629034 32228877 33658741
            34978636