Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

Areas affected...southwestern to eastern OH into western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160430Z - 161000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible from portions
of southwestern OH into eastern OH and western PA through 10Z.
Peak rainfall rates between 0.50 and 0.75 in/hr may occur but most
locations should see lower rates. Still, the addition of 1-2
inches of rain over a relatively short period of time atop
sensitive ground conditions may result in localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 04Z depicted an area of
higher reflectivity moving east-northeastward into
southwestern/central OH, just north of MPDs #42 and #44. While
bright banding accounts for these higher reflectivity values with
surface temperatures only in the 30s and 40s, ground observations
have reported peak rainfall rates of about 0.25 to 0.50 inches
(locally higher) to the west and north of Cincinnati within the
last hour. This axis of precipitation is related to a
strengthening zone of low level frontogenesis (850-700 mb),
located north of an approaching surface low in KY, connected to a
quasi-stationary front that extended through eastern KY into
north-central WV. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z indicated less
than 100 J/kg MUCAPE to the north of the front into OH. Strong
divergence aloft was also present over the region, given the
position of a 180+ kt upper level jet max located over MI and Lake
Huron, placing OH within its favorable right-entrance region.

Short term RAP forecasts indicate the surface low over KY will
steadily track northeastward over the next several hours, allowing
the front to lift north as a warm front through 09Z. This movement
will cause the strong axis of frontogenesis to also lift north
while weak MUCAPE (up to 150 J/kg or so) moves into southeastern
OH and western PA between 06-09Z. Bands of heavy rain are expected
within the broader precipitation shield with occasional rates as
high as 0.50 to 0.75 in/hr. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
is expected to occur through 10Z from southwestern OH into eastern
OH and western PA. While this region of the Midwest has escaped
the ongoing significant rains and flooding to the south, soils
remain sensitive with low FFG values of only 1 inch in 3 hours
across the upper OH Valley. Localized flash flooding may result
due to an additional 1-2 inches of rain over a fairly short period
of time.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41607951 41217861 40217943 39797989 39858054
            39788209 39048425 38888491 39668496 40678319
            41268145