Graphic for MPD #0053

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0053
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1019 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX INTO THE ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 010318Z - 010618Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO AREA.  HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON THE GOES-16
CLEAN IR CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEST
OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH, WITHIN AN AREA OF HEALTHY 850-650 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS.  DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS BEING SPONSORED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.  RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN CELL COVERAGE AS OF LATE WITH
POTENTIAL TRAINING/LENGTHENING BAND SHOWING UP OVER THE METRO
AREA.  SPC MESOANALYSES SHOW MUCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG WITHIN THE
WAVE'S WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.7" LIE
ACROSS THE REGION PER GPS DATA.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 20-40 KTS
PER RAP FORECASTS.  THE SOUNDING OUT OF FWD SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE,
WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  DENTON TX REPORTED
1.21" OF RAIN DURING THE PAST HOUR.

WITH CELLS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SHOWING PATHS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MERGERS AND/OR TRAINING NEAR DALLAS/FORT WORTH, HOURLY
RAIN TOTALS TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE.  MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 1.5-3" RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST AR.  CONSIDERING PARTIALLY SATURATED
SOILS AND URBANIZATION, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS SWEEP EASTWARD AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35339177 34209315 33349449 32509658 32559819
            33839771 35229389


Last Updated: 1019 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018