Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
949 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Central MS, AL, GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120249Z - 120849Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding is expected to continue this
evening across portions of central Mississippi, Alabama and
Georgia. As the night progresses the flash flood risk should
increase as convective intensity and organization increases across
the region.

Discussion...Convection continues to move east northeast across
portions of central MS, AL and GA this evening. This activity is
focusing near a low level boundary, with 30-40 kts of flow at
850mb resulting in ample moisture transport and convergence into
this boundary. This boundary is not expected to move much tonight,
and should act as a focus for periodic convective training with
cell motions generally parallel to this front. Large scale forcing
will increase overnight as the mid level closed low approaches
from the west. This increase in forcing and attendant uptick in
low level moisture transport should result in a gradual uptick in
convective coverage and intensity. Plenty of upstream instability
advecting in from the south (over 1000 J/KG) to support pockets of
heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr at times.

Rainfall totals as high as 2-4" are expected through 09z within
swaths in the MPD area from central MS into central GA. Recent
HRRR runs seem to reasonably depict the expected convective
evolution tonight. Although will say that the HRRR appears to be
under doing the ongoing activity over MS and AL...so the coverage
of 2"+ amounts through 09z may be even a bit larger than depicted
by the HRRR. Flash flooding will initially be pretty localized in
nature...with the greatest risk over central MS where soil
conditions are more saturated. However with time tonight the risk
is expected to increase over AL and GA as training convection
increases in coverage and organization. The flash flood risk
likely continues beyond the 09z expiration time of this MPD across
portions of central AL and GA.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33808344 33528244 33318205 32918195 32548212
            32378276 32338363 32288499 32108605 31958716
            31768856 31608944 31519026 31459069 31589102
            31949091 32399052 32639026 33008959 33278880
            33528755 33648661 33768549 33798527