Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama into southwest to central
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121245Z - 121845Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall likely to continue into this morning
along the west to east oriented front across portions of Alabama
and Georgia.  Training or repeat cells likely in the vicinity of
this front, leading to hourly rain of 2"+ and  totals of 4". 
Isolated to  widely scattered flash flooding possible.

Discussion...Surface analysis this morning is showing two well
defined west to east oriented frontal boundaries across the
Southeast.  The southern most front stretching from southeast
Alabama into southwest Georgia is the primary overrunning boundary
with a broad region of warm advection rains along and to the north
of this boundary across the Southeast.  Concerns will be in the
immediate vicinity of the southern most front where the latest
simulated hi res radar suggest cells will potentially train in a
west southwest to east northeasterly direction into this morning. 
Overall very favorable conditions remain in place this morning for
widespread heavy rains/embedded thunderstorms ahead of strong
closed low moving east from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast.  Models continue to show strong boundary layer
convergence into the southern front this morning as moist, PW
anomalies 2.5 to 3+ standard deviations above the mean,
southwesterly h85 flow of 40-50+ knots continues into the front,
which is not expected to move appreciably. 

Hi res radars this morning are a bit too far to the north with the
observed radar precip axis, but all suggest that there will be a
continued threat of cells to focus in the vicinity of the west to
east front from southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia. HREF
neighborhood probabilities are high in the metwatch area for 1 and
2"+ amount this morning, 70-90 and 60-90% respectively. For 3"+
totals probabilities are in the 40-60%, but confined to a smaller
area over southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia. 

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33688223 33388144 32748108 32308154 31808301
            31808323 31408466 30458632 31108730 31618791
            32498684 33358526 33648371 33558347