Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...a small part of southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160540Z - 160840Z

Summary...Localized training of storms on the southwestern flank
of a linear MCS near Columbus could pose a localized flash flood
risk over the next couple hours.

Discussion...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have grown
upscale into an extensive linear segment from near La Grange to
Columbus, GA over the past couple hours.  On the southwestern
flank of this MCS, scattered convection continues to increase in
coverage and intensity generally in the area of Troy and
Andalusia, AL.  These storms are in a very strongly sheared, moist
and unstable environment with minimal capping.  Additionally,
surface wind vectors suggest strong, focused convergence along the
southwestern end of the linear MCS that, when combined with nearly
2 inch PW values, should support areas of training/backbuilding
especially within the stronger instability across southeastern
Alabama.  Areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated on
the southwestern flank of the MCS (southwest of Columbus), and
short term trends suggest that heavy rainfall should continue in
this area for at least another couple hours until a surface trough
(extending along I-65 from Montgomery to Evergreen) translates
eastward through the area later tonight.

The mesoscale pattern could support an instance or two of flash
flooding as rainfall totals approach FFG thresholds (generally in
the 2.5 inch/hr and 3 inch/3-hr range) over the next couple hours.
 An additional 2-3 inches of rainfall cannot be ruled out in the
wake of the initial MCS.  Weaker surface-based instability over
Georgia should mitigate the eastward extent of the flash flood
risk.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32408483 31968419 31168462 31188599 31418651
            32288564