Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of far southeast GA and SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161252Z - 161552Z

Summary...A training band of heavy rain is expected to continue to
lead to hourly totals to 3" with storm totals to 5".  This could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A bow echo along a convective line in central SC
combined with another mesocyclone near Millen GA have held up
convection across portions of southeast GA and SC.  Hourly rain
totals to 3" and local amounts of 5" have been indicated by radar
imagery within this band.  Precipitable water values of
1.50-1.75", MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear near 50
kts, and fairly unidrectional flow with height have fostered the
development of this band.

The 06z HREF guidance suggests that this band should persist for
no more than a few hours.  For QPF volume, the 00z ARW appears to
have captured this best, though it's too far northeast with the
footprint.  The mesocyclone near Millen GA should force forward
propagation of the band later this morning.  Until then, expect
the threat of hourly rain totals to 3" with local amounts to 5"
being possible across portions of extreme southeast GA and SC.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33988040 33308001 32918085 32728216 33318182