Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EST Wed Mar 06 2024

Areas affected...far eastern NC into far southeastern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060840Z - 061440Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain is expected to impact far eastern
NC, including the Outer Banks, through 15Z. Flash flooding will be
possible within an axis of 3-6 inches of rain, which may fall over
a narrow stripe of land.

DISCUSSION...08Z regional radar imagery and infrared satellite
showed ongoing showers over eastern NC and offshore of the
southern NC coast. Recent cloud top cooling was noted roughly 50
miles east of Cape Fear, with occasional flashes via GOES East GLM
imagery over the past 1-2 hours. The recent uptick in convection
was located over the Gulf Stream and on the warm side of a slow
moving warm front which paralleled the coast of the Carolinas at
08Z, out ahead of an approaching low to mid-level low/trough
located over AL/GA. Estimated MLCAPE just offshore of the Outer
Banks and southeastern NC coast was 500 to 1000 J/kg via the 08Z
SPC mesoanalysis. Loops of Blended TPW showed 1 to 1.5 inch PWATs
advecting toward the coast as the warm front slowly approaches
land.

Increased forcing for ascent will continue to overspread the
central and southern Mid-Atlantic coast as the mid-level trough
advances east this morning, supporting the continued development
of showers and thunderstorms offshore of the Carolinas.
Unidirectional southerly flow seen in RAP forecast soundings and a
gradually strengthening 850 mb wind field will allow for training
of heavy rain, beneath modest diffluence aloft. The environment
will be capable of hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, but locally
higher values cannot be ruled out within pockets of higher
instability. The forecast slow movement of the warm front, perhaps
stalling over eastern NC, will allow for repeating and training of
heavy rain from near Cape Lookout to the northern Outer Banks,
including locations on either side of Pamlico and Albemarle Sound
and perhaps as far north as southeastern VA. Recent heavy rainfall
over this region since Friday has increased susceptibility to
rapid rises of water with the potential for an additional 3-6
inches of rain by 15Z. Locally heavy rain may support flash
flooding, with the greatest risk occurring within urbanized/more
impervious locations, but the coverage of any higher end rainfall
amounts is expected to be limited in coverage.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36857590 36427523 35847513 35117535 34877597
            34347685 34467706 35587677 36537652