Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Areas affected...coastal Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, far
southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241259Z - 241659Z

Summary...A couple of linear convective complexes are merging and
could pose an isolated flash flood threat over the next 2-3 hours
from New Orleans Metro eastward through Mobile, AL.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a couple of linear
convective complexes across the discussion area: 1) extending
along an east-west axis from near Mobile, AL to just north of
Baton Rouge, LA that was moving slowly southward and 2) a
faster-moving complex approaching an axis from Hammond to Morgan
City, LA.  The orientation of these complexes has fostered some
localized training/repeating, with 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates noted
per MRMS on a spotty/localized basis.  These rates are generally
below FFG thresholds, although some concern exists that as the
convective complexes continue to merge, areas of 1+ inch/hr rain
rates could materialize across more urbanized areas of the region
(generally from New Orleans proper to Mobile) and cause
spotty/isolated flash flooding to materialize.  This threat
appears to be highest along the Mississippi Gulf Coast over the
next couple hours.

Both of the linear complexes are progressive enough to suggest
that most of this morning's isolated flash flood threat should end
during the 16Z/11am CDT hour.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31488818 30878748 30398748 29798898 29369018
            29539131 30369107 31189086 31448943