Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251825Z - 260025Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding over southeast
FL may result in some urban flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery in
conjunction dual-pol radar shows the development and expansion of
heavy shower and thunderstorm activity over southeast FL, with an
emphasis on Miami-Dade County. Cooling cloud tops are noted in a
southwest to northeast fashion from over and west of Homestead and
stretching northeast into the Miami metropolitan area.

A combination of a front settling gradually south down the FL
Peninsula coupled with localized seabreeze convergence near the
urban corridor will facilitate additional convective development
this afternoon. A moderately moist and unstable environment is
already in place with MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg and PWs of 1.5+
inches. This coupled with 30 to 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
will favor slow-moving and relatively organized convective cells
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.
Some localized storm totals going through early this evening of 3
to 5 inches will be possible.

While FFGs are very high, these rains are expected to impact
portions of the highly urbanized/populated urban corridors from
Homestead northward up to Fort Lauderdale and possible even West
Palm Beach as the activity further expands in coverage. As a
result, a concern for urban flash flooding will exist over the
next several hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26988032 26918004 25998000 25398033 25278061
            25448082 25938057 26498039