Graphic for MPD #0093
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle...Far Southeast
AL...Southern GA...Adj Southern SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091100Z - 091630Z

SUMMARY...Continued risk for training thunderstorms and 2-4"
totals resulting in possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR loop depicts a mature linear
convective complex across Southern GA with the upstream edge
across the far western portion of the FL Panhandle. In concert
with regional RADAR, VWP and observations suggest another subtle
low level wave is lifting northeast out of the Panhandle along the
slowly sagging WSW to ENE oriented front resulting in another
burst of convective development along the upwind edge.  Ample deep
layer moisture remains attendant to the feature with total PWats
AoA 2" and the nose of central Gulf unstable air to feed the
linear complex with values of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from VPS to SW
GA.  Increasing southerly flow across the Atlantic has
lifted/connected the warm frontal feature across southern GA and
nearing the Low country of SC.  Given the favorable forcing a few
more hours of intense thunderstorms with rates of 1.5-2"/hr remain
likely. 

Southward propagation of the line has begun enough to reduced
duration at any given location, but still may result in streaks of
2-4" totals over the next 5-6 hrs with slow reduction in
intensity/coverage as the wave lifts NE through mid-morning but
will drop in latitude further into the drier/sandier soils of the
Coastal Plain. Eventually into early/mid-morning, the LLJ speed
max will shift out of the Gulf into GA/SC and reduce overall deep
layer convergence and slowly fracture the convective line. 
Clusters will likely continue to be highly efficient; however, the
coverage and duration may reduce enough for coverage of potential
areas of excessive rainfall to induce flash flooding. , However,
there is ongoing flash flooding from Walton county FL across SE AL
into south-central GA (Telfair county) where FFG values are
already being exceeded with continued hour or two of heavy
rainfall, so therefore flash flooding is considered likely.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32788100 32158065 31348127 30618326 30238497
            30378581 30818627 31518545 32248366 32778219
           
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Last Updated: 551 AM EST Sat Mar 09 2024