Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...northern MO...southeastern IA...north-central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140604Z - 141204Z

Summary...Additional localized totals of 2-3" may lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Intense thunderstorms are becoming more organized
across portions of the Middle MS Valley overnight, as indicated by
continued cold cloud tops via GOES-East infrared imagery. Despite
somewhat modest elevated instability (MU CAPE generally 250-1000
J/kg), convection has thrived in the vicinity of an 850 mb warm
front with significant deep layer shear (40-55 kts) in the
idealized right-exit region of a 110 kt jet streak over the
Southern Plains (promoting large scale lift via upper-level
divergence and diffluence). While total available tropospheric
moisture is somewhat low compared compared to late spring/early
summer, PWATs of 0.8-1.1 inches are between the 90th percentile
and max moving average for this time of year (per SPC sounding
climatology). Supercells in this environment have managed to
produce rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times, as bunkers right
storm motion vectors support a east-northeast motion as slow as 25
kts (allowing for localized training along the paralleling
elevated warm front). This has resulted in isolated totals of
2.0-3.5 inches around Topeka and Kansas City northeastward to
Burlington.

While these localized higher rainfall rates and totals have
remained fairly isolated, continued intense convection may allow
for a few more hours of rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr in the vicinity
of already saturated areas across portions of northern MO and
southeastern IA. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible
in this region with continued heavy rainfall, and would perhaps be
most likely in the vicinity of the MO/IA/IL border region and
eastward into north-central IL (downstream of the strongest
convection at the time of writing). Given the latest hi-res
guidance, additional localized totals of 2-3" are possible, ending
across western portions of the area by 12z.

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41839060 41698788 40898764 40028899 39089179
            39319445 39959527 41099365