Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1112 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Far Northwest
AR...Southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041510Z - 042000Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly concentrated areas of very heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity is occurring over northeast OK, far
northwest AR and into areas of southwest MO. Flash flooding is
likely with locally considerable impacts over the Ozark Plateau
going through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends show an increasingly
concentrated southwest to northeast axis of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms across portions of central to northeast OK,
northwest AR, and into southwest MO.

There are strong cell-training concerns setting up across this
region as the convection becomes aligned with the deeper layer
mean flow and also in close proximity to a well-defined 850/925 mb
convergence axis/front. Additionally, there is a well-defined
elevated instability gradient in place here with MUCAPE values of
as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Facilitating the overall heavy
rainfall footprint continues to be the nose of a 30 to 40+ kt
low-level jet which should further strengthen a bit over the next
few hours which will yield stronger moisture transport into the
region for convective sustenance and also enhanced rainfall rate
potential.

Rainfall rates of as much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour will be
possible with the stronger storms, but with increasingly
well-established cell-training concerns, there may be as much as 4
to 6 inches of rain that occurs by mid-afternoon. None of the
current 12Z HREF guidance, nor the recent HRRR solutions, have a
good handle of the ongoing activity. Based on the
repeating/training signature of cooling convective cloud tops over
eastern OK, it appears that an organized level of convection will
certainly continue in the near-term.

Flash flooding has already started locally, but a more regional
and higher level of flash flooding impacts can generally expected
to occur soon, and especially for areas of the Ozark Plateau.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37689214 37289195 36799275 35959445 35299551
            34579645 34799679 35629628 36229565 36859477
            37229404 37669286