Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 AM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX...Eastern OK...Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051050Z - 051600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
central to northeast TX and southeast OK will advance into
west-central to southwest AR, favoring a continued likelihood of
flash flooding, including significant and life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
an elongated complex of cold-topped convection advancing across
areas of central to northeast TX and up across southern and
eastern OK. Convection is also seen redeveloping ahead of this
into areas of west-central AR. The convection is being strongly
forced by the gradual ejection of stronger height falls across the
southern Plains in association with a mid-level trough.

A quasi-stationary front with multiple waves of low pressure
riding northeast along it remains draped in a southwest to
northeast fashion from central TX northeastward across central AR.
As the upstream height falls and axis of DPVA continues to advance
east, this boundary along with the pooling of moderate to strong
instability should continue to favor well-organized clusters of
convection with very heavy rainfall potential.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg along the
front, and there is a southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts
continuing to favor strong moisture flux convergence parameters.
The latest RAP analysis shows a stronger corridor of this
currently across northeast TX up into southeast OK and areas of
west-central AR where convection recently has grown upscale with
cooling convective tops.

The antecedent conditions are extremely sensitive over areas of
far northeast TX and much of western AR where very heavy rainfall
and locally high-impact/catastrophic flash flooding has already
occurred over the last 6 to 12 hours. Sensitivities on the ground
are also noted over eastern OK with a substantial lowering of FFG
values compared to 24 hours.

Additional rainfall amounts going through the mid to late-morning
hours may reach 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts which
is supported by recent HRRR solutions and the experimental WoFS as
well. Some of the heaviest rainfall at least for the next couple
of hours should tend to be over far eastern OK and into western AR
where substantial low-level forcing is currently in place.

Expect numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding to continue
this morning, with locally significant and life-threatening flash
flooding impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36369375 35959288 35059257 33729311 32449450
            31829568 31689673 32549738 33999678 35889516