Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 AM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...northern TX into southeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090446Z - 090915Z

SUMMARY...Locally repeating rounds of thunderstorms will pose a
threat for flash flooding across northern/northeastern TX into
southeastern OK through 09Z. 2 to 4 inches of rain with rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected, although localized rates over 2
in/hr cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were ongoing at 0415Z from northern TX
into and across the Red River Valley, primarily north of I-20,
located on either side of a slow moving cold front that extended
from eastern OK into northern TX. Many of these cells contained
large hail and severe winds but sufficient shear and instability
were supporting supercell organization and locally enhanced
rainfall intensities. For example, a cell in northern Parker
County was recently associated with ~1 inch of rain in 20 minutes
but average cell movement of 20 to 30 kt toward the northeast to
east has limited storm total rainfall.

Synoptic scale lift was occurring with height falls out ahead of a
mid-level closed low located over southern AZ, moving toward the
east. MLCAPE was estimated to range from 500 to 2000 J/kg at 04Z
along and just ahead of the front in northern TX via SPC
mesoanalysis data along with PWATs of 1.1 to 1.6 inches.
Additional storms are expected near/ahead of the cold front and
just north of a rain-cooled outflow boundary located west-east
across the DFW Metroplex over the next few hours. Expanding
thunderstorm coverage with cell mergers and locally repeating
rounds of thunderstorms are expected to produce 1-2 in/hr rates
with totals of 2-4 inches in a few places. Flash flooding will be
possible, especially with urban overlap of higher rates.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35129484 34619445 33679446 32989549 32609734
            32639866 33339889 34019786 34819620