Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into Northwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091800Z - 100000Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms going through the afternoon
hours may produce a few localized pockets of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a well-defined
upper-level trough and associated closed low gradually edging east
into the southern High Plains.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are already impacting portions
of the TX Panhandle through northwest TX, and some additional
expansion of this activity in a broken fashion is expected this
afternoon as stronger DPVA/jet-forcing around the eastern flank of
the upper low interacts with a nose of elevated instability
inclusive of a pool of relatively high mid-level lapse rates.

MUCAPE values of as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg are expected to be
generally nosed up across eastern portions of the TX Panhandle and
adjacent areas of northwest TX going through the afternoon hours,
and with a relatively concentrated area of low to mid-level
moisture in place and large scale ascent, some of the convective
elements this afternoon will be capable of producing rainfall
rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour.

Despite the elevated nature of the convection, rather strong shear
profiles will encourage some degree of convective organization,
and the cells will tend to be relatively slow-moving and capable
of repeating over the same area. Consequently, at least some
localized swaths of rainfall totals reaching 2 to 4 inches will be
possible.

The 12Z HREF guidance does indicate some low-end probabilities of
seeing 3-hour FFG exceedance with the additional rainfall this
afternoon, and given the locally slow cell-motions, some localized
pockets of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35240140 35210027 34699968 34099961 33600003
            33290095 33240197 33560288 34400301 34950237