Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100731Z - 101215Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms may produce flash flooding
across portions of central MS through 10Z. Rainfall rates of 1 to
2 in/hr are expected with additional totals of 2-4 inches through
12Z.

DISCUSSION...07Z radar imagery across the Lower MS Valley showed
an eastward advancing MCS with higher values of reflectivity
oriented from the northern LA/MS border into central LA. Weakening
reflectivity and warming cloud tops were noted downstream across
eastern MS into northern AL where instability was absent or very
limited. An outflow boundary (perhaps coincident with a stationary
front) was located just west of MEI to south of JAN to just north
of HEZ at 07Z.  Elevated instability was estimated to be 500-1000
J/kg to the north of the outflow boundary but lowered with eastern
extent via the 07Z SPC mesoanalysis.

As the upstream SW to NE line of thunderstorms approaches MS over
the next 1-3 hours, there will be the potential for training and
possible redevelopment of thunderstorms just ahead of the main
line, located near/north of the outflow boundary. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr will be possible, which may overlap with 3-5 inches
of rain which impacted portions of the Jackson metro over the past
6 hours. The greatest uncertainty is the availability of
instability due to an overall warming of cloud tops on infrared
satellite imagery over central MS over the past 1-2 hours,
although renewed influx of instability from the south will
possibly continue to support higher rates where training is able
to materialize. Flash flooding will be possible over the next few
hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33708872 33428831 32448857 32108971 32099088
            32829117 33329070 33688942