Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...northeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231844Z - 240044Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity across northeast KS.  Hourly rain totals to 1.75" and
local overall totals to 4" are possible over the next several
hours, which would challenge modest flash flood guidance values.

Discussion...ML CAPE has been increasing while CIN has been
increasing across eastern KS, which is leading to a convective
uptick across northeast KS in the vicinity of a front. 
Precipitable water values are near 1", and ML CAPE has risen to
just over 2000 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear remains under 25 kts,
at the moment.  There have been signs of backbuilding and cell
mergers north of Randolph KS as of late, and the convective
pattern is slowly growing.

The mesoscale guidance suggests two pulses of activity -- one
early, which is ongoing near the mesoscale warm front, and one
later on toward the end of the MPD period which appears to be
caused by convection along the mesoscale cold front which edges
eastward.  Inflow at 850 hPa is forecast to increase, which should
lead to effective bulk shear increasing to 25+ kts and increasing
convective organization with time.  Assuming some hail
contamination, hourly rain totals to 1.75" are ongoing due to
backbuilding and cell mergers, and there's no reason to expect
that to change much over the next several hours.  This leads to
the idea that the mesoscale guidance is too low on overall
rainfall amounts.  Moistening of the atmosphere locally should
raise the precipitable water values above 1.25".  Overall rain
totals should maximize around 3-4", which would challenge the
modest flash flood guidance values in the area.  Any flash
flooding would be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40109594 39789510 39139510 38579664 38599781
            39289783 40069758