Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290039Z - 290639Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding have occurred near Manhattan,
KS, and additional instances could continue for at least another
2-4 hours.  Spots of additional 1-4 inch rainfall totals are
expected.

Discussion...Between 22Z and 00Z, trailing convection has
developed upstream of a lead supercell currently about 25 N of
Topeka, KS.  These cells were redeveloping just north of trailing
outflow behind that lead supercell (extending across Manhattan and
areas southeast of Salina).  This axis also happens to be
collocate with a dryline extending through Salina to just east of
Omaha, NE.  Surface winds have remained backed across
central/southeastern Kansas ahead of this complex.  This scenario
has enabled focused convergence of updrafts from south of Salina
through Manhattan on to areas north of Topeka, with spots of 2
inch/hr rain rates estimated per radar.  The stationary nature of
the boundaries and their orientation parallel to steering flow
aloft suggests a continued threat of flash flooding for at least
another 2-3 hours.

Although some uncertainty exists with respect to the persistence
of ongoing convection across the discussion area, continued
convective training appears probable for the next 3-6 hours across
northeastern Kansas.  Both synoptic and mesoscale features are not
expected to change much through 06Z, with only subtle
southward/rightward movements of outflow and training axes based
on local convective evolution.  At least 1 inch/hr rain rates are
expected in this regime as long as convective training remains
pronounced. Local areas of 2-4 inch totals could occur where
training is most pronounced.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40319338 39849303 39429316 39039392 38699577
            38279705 38269769 38999783 39829637 40299453