Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Mid-Missouri Valley into west-central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070150Z - 070615Z

SUMMARY...Short term training of thunderstorms from southwest to
northeast could result in 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates and localized
totals in excess of 2 inches over the next 4 hours. Localized
flash flooding may result.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0130Z showed a solid line of
thunderstorms extending from the central NE/IA border into
southeastern NE and northeastern KS. Cells were more discrete
closer to I-70 but a second, shorter line segment has become more
organized, between RSL and SLN, extending SW to NE with slow
eastward movement. The entire region resided ahead of a
cold/occluded front analyzed over central NE/KS within a strongly
divergent and diffluent portion ahead of a negatively tilted
shortwave trough over the central to northern Plains.

Eastward movement of the upper trough should gradually allow
ongoing thunderstorm activity across the Missouri River Valley to
shift eastward through 06Z, but short term training has been
observed within some of the line segments. Northeastward movement
of individual echoes within line segments will support training
where slower eastward progression occurs or where line orientation
matches the mean steering flow. This appears most likely from
areas in northeastern KS into southeastern NE and southwestern IA
over the next 2-4 hours. 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates and localized
totals in the 2-3 inch range will be possible through 06Z.
Localized flash flooding will be possible atop area-wide 3-hr
flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42629482 42279395 41209384 40499424 39539531
            38719683 38709801 39419781 40259717 41809606
            42349573