Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
649 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northwest & north-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080000Z - 080600Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall concerns continue in the vicinity of a
front sinking through the region.  Hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding, primarily in
urban areas.

Discussion...A wavy front continues to settle southward towards
the north-central and northwest Gulf Coast.  Precipitable water
values in the region are 1.3-1.7" per GPS data.  Effective bulk
shear is generally 25-50 kts, with the associated field sinking
southward with the boundary.  ML CAPE is 1000-3000 J/kg.  The deep
layer flow is generally out of the southwest.  The above
parameters support organized convection, and at times
thunderstorms have organized into a linear or clustered
appearance.  Cell mergers have been common where 850 hPa inflow
has shown some confluence in the Lower Mississippi Valley, while
attempts at cell training have occurred north of Houston as of
late.  Mesocyclones have been present at times within the
convective pattern.  Backbuilding has also been seen at times.

The mesoscale guidance suggests two main areas where heavy
rainfall is preferred through 06z -- from far southeast TX through
southern LA into southern MS, with a secondary maximum across the
Brush Country of interior South TX.  Based on the ingredients
present, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" remain
possible in these areas wherever cells merge, train, backbuilding
occurs, or mesocyclones track.  Much of the region is in long term
drought so the three hour flash flood guidance values are rather
high, in the 3-4" range.  Urban areas appear most threatened by
upcoming heavy rains.  Flash flooding is considered possible.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...BMX...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...
MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33128827 32318749 30788773 29878893 29439145
            29329399 28539567 26859715 26289912 27299997
            28349995 29679852 31229470 32299144 33048981