Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0307
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...NM/west TX into southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031730Z - 032330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible across a sizable portion of NM into far western TX and
southeastern AZ. Slow moving cells will have the potential to
produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in 30-60 minutes, with the flash
flood threat continuing into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible imagery at 17Z showed the early stages
of cumulus development across the higher terrain of the Colorado
Plateau into the Black Range and Sacramento Mountains. Skies were
mostly clear over the Southwest (except eastern NM) allowing for
surface heating and the expansion of instability. 17Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over
southwestern NM) but with varying degrees of convective inhibition
remaining. Blended TPW satellite imagery showed moisture was
similar to this time yesterday over the eastern third of NM but
higher for central NM into eastern AZ with standardized PW values
presently at +1 to +2 throughout the region.

Large scale forcing in the mid-levels showed NM was between a
northward departing shortwave along the northern NM/TX border and
a closed low west of the Baja Peninsula with weak shortwave
ridging in between the two disturbances. With a lack of larger
scale forcing in place, steering flow aloft was weak at less than
10 kt for most of NM into eastern AZ. Thunderstorms are expected
to form over the higher terrain over the next 1 to 2 hours with
subsequent development on storm induced outflows and within the
increasingly unstable airmass through the mid-afternoon.
Increasing coverage of cells and mergers will enhance rain rates
in a few locations with 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes likely.
These rates will be especially problematic should they overlap
with sensitive burn scars or other locations with poor
infiltration, possibly leading to flash flooding on an isolated to
scattered basis.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36930421 36700325 36300339 35220432 34230472
            32790422 31030390 30170416 30040539 30530603
            31110681 31260822 31220966 31551015 32501030
            33421017 34000970 34480850 35610756 35990680
            36800539