Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0308
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Eastern Panhandle and Northwest
OK...Northeast TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040130Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for repeating/training of
thunderstorms; however, soil conditions will require this
prolonged duration, moderate to high intensity to result in
localized flash flooding, yet a spot or two remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is starting to expand across
the eastern quadrant of the older MCV from last night's convective
complex. That MCV is currently at the corner of CO/NM and OK
borders with a secondary smaller MCV near the Palo Duro Canyon
lifting northward along the weakly defined mid-level shear axis
that extends southeast across central TX.   Further aloft, the
core of the upper-level ridge is over central OK allowing for
right entrance ascent and favorable outflow environment exiting to
the 60-70kt jet streak over E CO.  

Surface to boundary level response shows strong directional
convergence with backed, moist flow with Tds in the low to mid 60s
across central OK, intersecting with southwesterly flow from a
fairly strong 2021mb  meso-high along the NM/TX border north of
Clovis.   Clear skies between the MCV features also has allow for
solid insolation with temps rising into the low to upper 80s from
SW KS into NW OK; supporting MLCAPEs to 2000 J/kg, increasing
further north into KS.  So the combination of surface convergence,
solid vertical ascent capability and outflow aloft will maintain
convective activity along the northwest edge of the moisture axis
which will increases from just below 1.5: toward 1.7" into late
evening.  This will encourage rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr. 

Given placement of the MCVs, deep layer steering is also generally
weak and fairly unidirectional/confluent into the right entrance
of the jet streak in E CO.  Given confluence/convergence axis is
fairly parallel to the mean flow, and strengthening upstream
inflow supportive of back-building should allow for some
repeating/training through the afternoon into evening period. 
Propagation toward the east and northeast may disrupt ideal
repeating but at 5-10kts, it should deviate that much.

However, hydrologically, the area has naturally higher FFG but has
also been in a prolonged drought.  NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture
values are in the single digits in many places, though portions of
SW KS have seen some relief with values back to near or just below
normal in the 40s; as such FFG values are high across TX/OK near
3-4"/hr; but are 1-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs in KS).   Expected
rates are not so extreme to overwhelm infiltration, but localized
2-3" totals may become an issue more so in SW KS, though a few
towns in TX/OK may be intersected enough for an isolated instance
of flash flooding through evening, there as well. 

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38300019 38099912 37489860 36019897 35289977
            35570066 37150188 38000165