Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0314
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...West
Texas...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040529Z - 041125Z

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms gradually advancing east
across the southern High Plains will continue to produce localized
heavy rainfall overnight. A generally isolated threat for flash
flooding will continue given rainfall rates locally as high as 1.0
to 1.5 inches/hour.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery shows a broken
axis of thunderstorms still impacting areas of southern and
eastern New Mexico and extending northeastward up toward the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Pockets of ascent
continue to be maintained by the presence of multiple embedded
mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) rotating through the base of
a broad upper trough over the southern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains.

Ahead of the broken areas of convection are pockets of MUCAPE
reaching as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with the latest RAP
analysis showing the greatest instability generally over southeast
New Mexico with somewhat lesser values noted elsewhere over the
southern High Plains. Meanwhile, the PWs are locally as high as
1.0 to 1.25 inches, and with the instability, there are some areas
of thunderstorms producing rainfall rates of up to 1.0 to 1.5
inches/hour.

The latest hires guidance continues to support a broken axis of
convection gradually advancing east or northeastward overnight
through portions of the southern High Plains, with some additional
rainfall totals reaching 2 to 3 inches locally. The latest HREF
and REFS guidance still supports some 20 to 30 percent
probabilities of exceeding the 3-hour FFG.

Therefore, given the current convective trends and level of
instability that is still in place along with the MCV activity, an
isolated threat for areas of flash flooding should continue
overnight.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37700102 37669994 36589968 34710054 33100181
            32000271 30740332 30390452 30830572 31320633
            31960661 32440648 32880602 33300533 34120430
            34760344 35570262 36480199