Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...East-Central TX...West-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101636Z - 102202Z

Summary...Periodic training/repeating of showers and thunderstorms
with max rainfall rates of 2.5-3"/hr will drive an isolated flash
flooding risk this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar trends depict expanding convective coverage on
a west-east axis over portions of East-Central TX and West-Central
LA along a weak stationary front, downstream of a decaying MCS and
associated MCVs south of the DFW Metro. Maximum estimated rainfall
rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hour are noted within the most intense
cores per single source radar and MRMS.

Amid strong insolation, favorable midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5
degrees), and PWATs of 1.8-2" (around the 90th percentile per SPC
climatology), the environment is very favorable to support
efficient warm rain production in the developing activity along
the front, with hourly rainfall rates of 2.5-3"/hr possible at
times. While effective shear is generally quite weak across the
region, short term forecasts from the RAP suggest the approach of
the MCVs could promote a corridor of enhanced shear oriented
parallel to the boundary (20-30 kts) to support cell longevity and
periods of repeating/training.

As additional cells fill in and align with the upstream complex,
both the HREF and RRFS PMM suggest localized rainfall totals of
2-4" are possible along the front. While soil moisture anomalies
within the affected region are generally around normal, the
intense hourly rates combined with periods of repeating/training
will support an isolated flash flood risk going through the
afternoon.

Asherman

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   32299605 31999432 31389217 30929180 30579214
            30639323 31019563 31459671 32069678