Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0425
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Louisiana into
central Mississippi and a small part of east Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160725Z - 161325Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing in
coverage over central Louisiana and should continue to do so
throughout the discussion area.  Flash flooding is likely given
antecedent conditions over the past 24 hours.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in
convective coverage across central Louisiana between Alexandria
and Winnfield, with more isolated activity noted across
southwestern Mississippi.  The convection was developing in
response to increasing convergence on the northern end of enhanced
850mb flow, which has reached ~20 knots or so per mesoanalyses and
models.  The storms are in an abundantly moist environment (2-2.4
inch PW values) supporting efficient rainfall rates beneath
heavier activity.  Meanwhile, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE (peak over
Louisiana) is proving sufficient for deep convective development. 
1 inch/hr rain rates were already noted just northwest of
Alexandria recently (per MRMS).

Convective trends should continue through the morning hours. 
850mb flow is progged to increase to 30 kt over south-central
Louisiana, further enhancing convergence along a zone generally
parallel to and in between the I-20 and US 84 corridors.  This
orientation will allow for training/repeating -- some occurring in
areas that have already experienced 2-8 inches of rainfall over
the past 24 hours.  FFG thresholds are near zero in areas of
Louisiana that have experienced the highest rainfall totals
recently, and increase to around 1-2 inches/hr across central
Mississippi.  The scenario supports a high likelihood of
occasional FFG exceedance as convective coverage continues to
expand through 13Z/8a central.  Flash flooding is likely.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33098937 32398861 31688883 30889048 30529266
            31029453 31669462 32029432 32389358 32819185