Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma through
central/southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141746Z - 142300Z

Summary...An intensifying convective complex over eastern Oklahoma
will sweep through the discussion area and pose a risk of areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times.  These rates are expected to
cause localized/isolated flash flood issues through 23Z/6p CDT.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a linear MCS has
materialized over eastern Oklahoma from near Muskogee to near Ada.
 Cells within this complex were moving east-southeastward at
approximately 25-30 knots, which has mostly kept peak rain rates
at around 1-2 inches/hr (just shy of FFG thresholds) so far this
afternoon.

As storms migrate downstream through the afternoon and early
evening, a few considerations for increasing flash flood potential
exist, including: 1) deepening convection ahead of the complex,
which should allow for a few areas of mergers to prolong/increase
rain rates above 2 inches/hr and 2) the orientation of the complex
itself - which may allow for localized training on occasion.  FFG
thresholds should be breached in a few areas of this complex moves
through, with low-lying/sensitive areas of particular concern for
flash flooding.

Over time, a few of these storms may reach areas just north/east
of Little Rock that experienced 3-5 inch rainfall totals just a
few hours ago.  These areas may also be locally sensitive and
prone to flooding.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36119511 36059402 35539176 34769128 33739158
            32959393 33609641 34339741 35069773 35569601