Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040525Z - 041030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX
overnight with very heavy rainfall expected. Hourly rainfall in
excess of 2 to 3 inches seems reasonable given the environment and
localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches will be possible. Some flash
flood impacts could be significant, especially considering
sensitive terrain over portions of the region.

Discussion...05Z regional radar mosaic over central TX showed an
ongoing area of thunderstorms with a few areas of very efficient
rainfall resulting from embedded training. As of 05Z, some of the
heaviest hourly rainfall (2 to 3 inches per MRMS) was occurring
over Bandera and San Saba counties. Another area of training was
found just southeast of San Angelo along US 87, tied to a remnant
MCV circulation (related to the remains of Barry's mid-level
circulation), located between SJT and JCT and embedded within a
broader mid-level trough that extended NNW into eastern CO. The
region was located within an extremely moist environment
containing 2.0 to 2.5 inches of PW with contributions from the
Gulf of America and tropical east Pacific clearly evident on
layered PW imagery.

Low level southerly winds sampled by area VAD wind plots at 850 mb
were 20-30 kt and these winds are expected to maintain through the
overnight with some subtle strengthening possible over the next
couple of hours. The upper trough and remnant mid-level
circulation over central TX is expected to slowly advance east
while low level convergence continues to focus from the TX Hill
Country, northward to the I-20 corridor. Terrain enhancement into
the Hill Country and low level convergence at the leading edge of
the stronger low level flow will set up favorably with the mean
steering flow from the southwest to support areas of training. The
tropical airmass will be capable of 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an
hour and localized totals over 6 inches in a 6 hour period may
also occur. These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result
in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of
which may become locally significant.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33139936 32779820 31759771 30119833 29209929
            29330030 29950076 31250063 32340033