Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0650
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090700Z - 091300Z

SUMMARY...Localized pockets of flash flooding will be possible
early this morning from slow-moving and efficient showers and
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows a couple of well-defined vort centers situated across
southwest and northern KY that are embedded within a broader
mid-level trough over the OH Valley. This energy is gradually
drifting off to the east-northeast, and is expected to foster some
scattered shower and thunderstorm development going into the early
morning hours.

A quasi-stationary frontal zone remains draped across the region
and there is a modest pool of instability noted in close proximity
to this front with MUCAPE values locally over 1000 J/kg. The
approaching vort energy will be interacting with this front and
the available moisture and instability to help facilitate a
gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity this morning.
However, the overall coverage should generally tend to be
scattered.

The main concern will be for pockets of slow-moving convection
that are relatively warm-topped, but also embedded within an
already moist airmass that is pooled across large areas of the OH
Valley and the central Appalachians. Recent OSPO ALPW data shows
rather strong concentrations of moisture in the mid and
upper-levels of the vertical column that will support greater
efficiency for high rainfall rates with some of the convection.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and some localized 2 to 3+
inch totals cannot be ruled out early this morning, and especially
across areas of southern OH through far southwest PA and northern
WV. FFGs are relatively low across some of these areas, and
therefore there may be some localized pockets of flash flooding
from these areas of showers and thunderstorms that materialize.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40507940 40187871 39497860 38777920 38388034
            38248247 38308405 38618509 39358491 39748335
            40018225 40448079