Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0723
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...West-central MO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170710Z - 171200Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection starting to progress into a linear
complex.  Scattered incidents of flash flooding possible, though
additional 2-4" in/near KC Metro more likely to result in FF
conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a complex interaction
between older, surface rooted cells/outflow boundaries are
starting to intersect merge with increasingly progressive elevated
convection from across north-central and northeast KS.

Of greatest concern is very broad up/downdraft region nearing the
KC Metro area.  This cluster lies at the intersection of older
outflow boundary from original cells in the KC Metro that has
returned northeastward under stronger south to southeasterly WAA.
Very moist (2-2.25" PWat/low 70s Tds), unstable air (2000-3000
J/kg) is highly convergent (20-25kts of BL ascent) over the cold
pool and is capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates; combined with upstream
scattered elevated convective cores will allow for potential of an
additional 2-4" in and surrounding the KC Metro area, increasing
the likely potential for flash flooding conditions given increased
runoff over impermeable ground surfaces and poor drainage areas.

Along the remaining line, cold pool generated in north-central KS
has resulted in southeastward propagation of the elevated cells;
however, convection is starting to reduce in cloud base as it
nears the surface boundary and south to southwest LLJ inflow. 
This angle of inflow will support southwest flank continued
development with favorable propagation vectors back toward the
southwest.  Further upstream clusters in north-central KS will
drop southeastward as well, allowing for some repeating and
localized 2-3" totals to occur.  Still, the overall interaction
with older outflows will likely result in a very inconsistent
scattered nature to enhanced pockets of higher rainfall totals
with a broader area of 1-2" totals.  As a result, flash flooding
conditions are likely to be very focused/localized.  Hard dry soil
conditions could also aid in increased run-off given their
hydrophobic nature with soil saturation values only at 20-30% (or
generally in the 5th-15th percentiles for saturation).   So minus
the likely flash flooding in KC Metro, most areas are going to be
on the edge of no or low-end flash flooding conditions within the
area of concern through late overnight this morning.    

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39509697 39439581 39419531 39239383 38919309
            38459292 37839329 37479417 37469559 37739669
            38569790 39169788 39449764