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WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0968 (2018)
(Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 )

MPD Selection

Graphic for MPD #0968

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0968
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Areas affected...Central & Northeast North Carolina; Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111850Z - 120000Z

Summary...Along and south of the track of Tropical Storm Michael,
heavy tropical rain bands are expected to lift northeast with the
storm. These rain bands may produce rain rates to 2-3 in/hr and
are likely to lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Discussion...At 18Z, NHC analyzed Tropical Storm Michael to be
moving quickly northeast through central North Carolina. A fairly
wide rain band (approx 40 mi) was situated ahead of the center of
circulation, in a region of strong low-level inflow (850mb winds
in excess of 50 knots per radar VWPs) and moderate instability
(MUCAPE 1000-1500 j/kg per RAP analysis). This rain band should
continue to lift northeast with Michael's circulation through the
rest of the afternoon and spread heavy rainfall across much of
northern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. This rain band,
like Michael's circulation, should be fairly progressive, but the
width of the inflow rain bands should allow for heavy rain to
persist in some areas for 2-3 hours. This should be sufficient for
some flash flooding, particularly when it intersects urban areas.
Precipitable water values were well above 2 inches. When combined
with relatively strong instability for a tropical environment,
this should yield rain rates of 2-3 in/hr in the heaviest rain
bands. By 00Z, the progression of Michael should shift the
majority of the rain into far northeast North Carolina or
southeast Virginia.




LAT...LON   37277687 36897589 36217644 35767719 35457842
            35687923 36347932 36937843 37247768

Last Updated: 251 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

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