Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #1061 (2022)
(Issued at 801 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #1061

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeast UT...Western CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010000Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing excessive rainfall
rates look to continue for a couple more hours, potentially
resulting in additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The upper low over Idaho continues to foster
favorable diffluent flow atop the atmosphere while a residual
influx of 700mb moisture also remains in place. RAP guidance
around ~00Z still shows 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE available in
northwest AZ and southwest UT, with lesser values in the 250-500
J/kg range in east-central UT. There also remains convergent 700mb
flow over the region, denoted by NW flow coming out of the
northern Great Basin and SW flow from the Lower Colorado River
Basin. This coincides with a fairly uniform SW flow pattern within
the 700-500mb layer, suitable for potential training cells and
orographic enhancement along favorably oriented terrain. Daytime
heating is coming to an end, so the window will soon close for the
current pockets of convection. However, given the available
instability, moisture content (PWs hovering around 0.75" on
average) and supportive synoptic-scale forcing, heavy
thunderstorms should stick around for a few more hours.

Soil moisture percentiles remain around the 90th percentile for
parts of southern and east-central Utah, with some storms having
prompted FLASH CREST maximum unit stream flow responses >200
cfs/smi at times. MRMS instantaneous rates have gotten as high as
2"/hr at times, and given the terrain and sensitive soils, these
kind of instantaneous rainfall rates in brief periods of time can
cause rapid runoff. It will be in these areas with saturated
soils, as well as in slot canyons, dry washes, burn scars, and
along complex terrain that continue to feature the best odds of
contending with flash flooding for the remainder of the evening.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40000814 39560721 38530752 37610832 37210929
            37071055 37161180 37561288 37821325 38181295
            38831129 39640982


Last Updated: 801 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 12-May-2022 19:44:52 GMT