|WPC Met Watch|
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #1088 |
(Issued at 1031 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021
Areas affected...middle/lower Texas Coastal areas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 141430Z - 141800Z
Summary...A slow-moving MCS will continue a flash flood threat
this morning across the discussion area, though this risk should
diminish and move off shore through 18Z or so.
Discussion...A persistent, organized band of convection continues
to drift very slowly southward near the VCT, NIR, and CRP areas.
MRMS rainfall rates continue to indicate 2-4"/3hour rainfall rates
with this system, which is not surprising given the abundantly
moist pre-convective airmass supporting the convection (2-2.4 inch
PW values and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite high FFGs in areas ahead
of the convection, the rainfall rates will likely cause a few
flash flooding issues through 18Z especially in
Over time, the absence of substantial forcing for ascent aloft,
weakening low-level fields, and progression toward open waters of
the Gulf of Mexico all point to a subsiding flash flood threat.
Observations/models suggest that this could occur around or
shortly after 18Z as the MCS finally reaches the coastline.
LAT...LON 29789560 29439557 28569614 27649715 27079834
27419876 28069887 28589826 29519637
Last Updated: 1031 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021