Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030341Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms across southeast FL will continue in the near-term.
Concerns for urban flash flooding will exist near and south of the
Miami metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some concentrated areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms continuing to impact portions of southeast FL. Much
of the activity is currently situated near and south of Miami with
some relatively organized banding of convection that is
well-aligned with the very moist/unstable low-level easterly flow
impacting the FL Peninsula.

Satellite and surface data also show signs of a weak low-level
vort center near Biscayne Bay which is helping to concentrate an
axis of strong moisture convergence into the coastal areas in
between Miami and Homestead. MLCAPE values of near 1000 J/kg are
in place, with PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches.

Some cell-training concerns will exist over the next few hours
with the convective activity impacting southeast FL, and
especially with a persistently convergent low-level Atlantic fetch
into the region. Rainfall rates have already been reaching as high
2 to 3 inches/hour, and with any persistence of these stronger
convective cores, there may be some rainfall totals that locally
approach or exceed 5 inches. This is supported by some of the 00Z
HREF guidance.

Expect there to be at least some concerns for urban flash flooding
with these heavier rainfall rates and storm totals set up over the
next few hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26168015 26028007 25758007 25328022 25278039
            25478053 25968043 26158027