Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...southwestern LA to upper TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010950Z - 011550Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rain associated with T.S. Edouard will likely
begin to impact southwestern LA into the upper TX coast over the
next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, with isolated
values over 2 inches, are expected. Isolated flash to urban
flooding may occur as a result.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Edouard was located about 65 miles
southeast of Cameron, LA via the 09Z NHC advisory, moving toward
the west-northwest at 7 kt. Since 03Z, the infrared satellite
presentation from GOES East showed the compact tropical system
contained a majority of convection to the north and east of the
cyclone's center, likely due to an intrusion of drier air located
northwest of the system wrapping around into the south side of the
circulation. However, recent colder cloud tops have been noted
south of the center since 08Z with Edouard appearing healthier
compared to 6-9 hours earlier.

Given the 09Z NHC advisory forecast track/timing and discussion
indicating the likelihood for Edouard to strengthen as it
approaches the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that banding will
become better organized to the north of the center with low level
convergence aided by frictional convergence along the coastline.
In addition, should the system continue to become better
organized, convection near the eyewall may also become better
defined with the center of Edouard forecast by the 09Z NHC
advisory to be near the mouth of the Sabine River at 18Z. The
frequency of heavy rain bands is likely to increase from
southwestern LA into the upper TX coast through 16Z with hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, although localized potential will exist
for hourly rainfall values in excess of 2 inches as well. Should
these areas of heavy rain overlap with urban areas or other
locations of poor drainage, isolated flash flooding may result.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   30289408 30279292 30129217 29829170 29489144
            29189171 29409270 29349379 29019506 29349563
            29889565 30169512