WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0181 (2021) |
(Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021
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MPD Selection |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...East-Central Oklahoma through North Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 161615Z - 162115Z
Summary...Potential for flash-flooding this afternoon along a
moisture/instability axis extending from North Texas into
east-central Oklahoma.
Discussion...A mid-level impulse is lifting northeast through
central OK with an axis of moisture/instability extending north
from south TX ahead of this wave. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed in this axis over North Texas with recent max one hour
rainfall estimates from KFWS of 1.5 to locally 2" over the I-35
corridor including the Dallas metro. PWs of 1.6" to 1.7" will
continue to be reinforced by 25kt southerly 850mb flow with SBCAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/Kg. 1hr FFG is lower through the Dallas
metro/along I-35E (between 2.0" and 2.5"/hr) where the greater
moisture is present. Farther north in east-central OK are PWs
around 1.5" and 1hr FFG is generally just above 2.5"/hr. However,
the mid-level circulation should continue to allow some longer
residence time for moderate to heavy rain, making for a similar
isolated flash flood in parts of central OK to North TX this
afternoon.
Jackson
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 36149685 35659572 32829579 31379606 30989647
31009701 31079741 31539761 32049748 32489727
33239725 33739720 34329769 34509844 35479778
Last Updated: 1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021
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